Carrier and the Commonwealth

I was asked by Fortune to contribute a piece about Trump’s Carrier deal. They had gotten a lot of people criticizing it and were looking for someone who would give a different perspective. I think many of the criticisms are valid in a sense, but miss the larger context. So I wrote the piece which is now online. Here’s an excerpt:

Alexis de Tocqueville pointed out that one of the keys to America’s unique success was its sense of enlightened self-interest. Americans worked and competed hard for themselves, their families, and their businesses, but they understood that a purely selfish mindset was self-destructive in the long term. Tocqueville observed inDemocracy in America, “Each American knows when to sacrifice some of his private interests to save the rest; we [the French] want to save everything, and often we lose it all.”

Businessmen once understood this link between national, local, and personal success. The men of the Commercial Club of Chicago who commissioned Daniel Burnham to create his famed 1909 plan for that city had personal fortunes deeply tied to Chicago. They needed the city as a whole to succeed for them to succeed. Likewise, General Motors CEO Charles Erwin Wilson once famously said, “For years I thought what was good for our country was good for General Motors, and vice versa.” He understood that his company’s fortune and America’s were intertwined: GM couldn’t make any money if no one could afford to buy its cars.

…

As these restrictions were lifted, these businesses left enlightened self-interest behind in favor of quarterly profits. They forgot their community in favor of global capital. Their business models evolved to delink profits and executive compensation from broad-based American prosperity. They could take a portfolio view of local communities and even countries. It was all very economically efficient. These firms and their managers could thrive even while much of America fell into ruin. Or so they thought.

Click through to read the whole thing.

Some people were a bit critical such as by saying, “Why not say this when Obama bailed out the auto industry?” or “Why is it only good when Trump does it?”  In fact, I’ve actually written on this theme before.

Back in November 2008, shortly after Obama’s election, I posted a piece in which I criticized the auto companies’ management and came out in favor of a federally backed restructuring of the auto industry. While I am critical of some aspects of how Obama handled this, the idea of bailing out the car companies was something I was on record as supporting before it happened. Here are some excerpts from that:

Even if you assume a lot of this [auto company management behavior] is exaggerated for effect or outright BS, I’ve heard so many similar type things from people who’ve been associated with the auto industry that there must be a kernel of truth in it somewhere. I lead with this because it is so common to blame the UAW and its $73/hour or some such wage packages for the problems facing the Big Three. And indeed in the modern era that is not sustainable. But there has been particularly little focus on the management excesses of the auto industry, and the corporate cultures of those companies, and by analogy that of Detroit.

…

I’ve seen estimates that 2-3 million jobs could be lost and that chaos would ensue if the auto makers went bankrupt. That’s probably true if GM, Ford, and Chrysler just waltz down to the court house and file. But it is not the case if they have a government sponsored, pre-packaged bankruptcy.

…

Even so, we can’t lose track of the fact that there are real human beings, labor and management, with real trauma in their lives. Even if they are at least partially to blame for the mess they are in, that doesn’t mean they deserve what they are getting. It’s like a Greek tragedy: the suffering is disproportionate to the crime. And there but for the grace of God go you and I. I also work in a restructuring industry, and may yet join the auto workers in their pain.

The stories you hear in the Detroit papers are heartbreaking. One that really stuck with me was about people losing their life’s possessions when they couldn’t pay the rental fees on storage lockers. People who had already lost their homes to foreclosure put their possessions in storage, only to lose them too as the storage companies auctioned them to pay the bills. I’m not an emotional guy, but this makes me sick to my stomach. I don’t know about you, but I don’t think this should be happening in a country like America. People who made decisions in good faith, who showed up to work every day, who did the right things to care for their families, shouldn’t be left to lose everything because of the action of economic forces they can’t understand or control. Not in America. That’s why we absolutely need a federal safety net program here. Michigan alone can’t fund this.

I probably anticipated more of a bite the bullet approach than actually happened (which is one reason restructuring is still ongoing), and my views have probably changed somewhat in eight years, but clearly the same general themes are present.

Where I would take issue with Trump, is in the idea of “bringing the jobs back” as the theme. This sort of nostalgia for a bygone idyllic era that never really was is powerful in the Midwest. It’s very backwards looking and based on a language of resentment. I can understand why the appeal to this works rhetorically, but as an actual policy goal it’s not realistic. The ship has already sailed too far to return to the harbor. That doesn’t mean we should double down on the status quo, but we’ll have to chart a different path forward to the future, not roll back the clock. (Fortunately, Trump’s working class supporters seem realistic on this point and don’t expect him to literally do every single thing he said).

This perhaps explains why I’m more positive on intervention to save existing jobs than to try to lure new ones. That and the difference in the price tags. It’s one thing to try to preserve actually existing businesses already woven into the fabric of the community, but it’s another to try to speculatively create something new. I’m not under any illusion that we’ll get rid of economic incentives, but it does seem excessive to me to spend, say, $750 million (corruptly, as it appears to have turned out) to lure a solar panel factory to Buffalo. I’m ok with the idea of spending a billion dollars of state money in Buffalo, but there have to be better ways to do it. (Mayor Stephanie Miner of Syracuse said if she had a billion, she’d spend three fourths of it to fix her city’s water pipes – a prescient pledge made prior to the Flint debacle).

It’s also the case that we need to be willing to face the unpleasant reality that many communities are poorly positioned for the future economy. That doesn’t mean abandoning them, but we do have to level with them. And those communities, not just the federal government, also need to be willing to make some changes.

But all that doesn’t mean that simply pushing forward with more of what we’ve already been doing is a viable option. Trump understood that, and beyond the politics of it, the Carrier deal was a symbol that he intends to pursue a new direction.

from Aaron M. Renn
http://www.urbanophile.com/2016/12/21/carrier-and-the-commonwealth/

Where Does Columbus Go From Here?

Columbus, Ohio has been doing very well as a city in recent years. It’s the fastest growing major Midwest city in population and second fastest in job growth. They recently won the US DOT’s Smart City Challenge grant, which has been generating some buzz.

I was in Columbus this week to speak again at the Columbus Metropolitan Club. I talked a bit about Columbus’ performance, where it goes from here, some of the challenges it faces, how to build a better national brand, etc. The video of the event, which I’m told will also air on public television throughout Ohio, is below. If the video doesn’t display for you, click over to watch on You Tube.

from Aaron M. Renn
http://www.urbanophile.com/2016/12/15/where-does-columbus-go-from-here/

The Most Important Commandment for Writing on the Internet

Albert Camus said that the most fundamental question in philosophy was, Why not kill yourself?

In blogging, that question is, Why start yet another blog?

As part of sharing what I’ve learned in nearly a decade of writing for an internet audience, today I’ll give the most important thing you need if you want to grow an audience online: something unique and compelling to say.

A lot of urbanist blogs started about the same time as mine, but few of them took off at scale. I pondered why mine did and came up with a few factors.

One is that from the start I was a regionally focused blog, looking at Midwest cities. I didn’t really conceptualize it that way. It was really more of an Indianapolis blog in my mind, but I saw that few people in Indianapolis had any idea what was going on down the road in Cincinnati or Louisville. So they had no context for evaluating Indianapolis. I made it a regional blog to provide a sort of competitive intelligence function that I thought was lacking. That paid dividends.

Being a regional blog let me expand to a national and global audience easily, because I was already multi-city.

Another factor is that I picked a region that didn’t get much love and focus from the existing urbanist media. That wasn’t a strategy per se. I picked the Midwest because it was where I lived. But it was a good pick  – I went after a whitespace market.

It also helped that I actually enjoy writing, as opposed to simply seeing my name in print or online (though that’s nice too).

But the most important factor was that I made the commitment to myself early on to produce insight and analysis that was simply not available elsewhere. In fact, this post is in part a reprise of my very first blog post when I laid out that mission:

This blog is going to be something I’ve seen no where else: a no-hold’s barred, spare no illusions look at aspiring cities, focused on the smaller cities of the Midwest and Indiana. You’ll find my ofttimes contrarian take on urban planning, economic development, transportation, what it means to be “world class”, and how places measure up against that standard. But beyond that you’ll get unique data and analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

I’ve often said the measure of a newspaper column is, having seen the title and the author, whether or not you even need to read it. So often there’s no point. You already know what the person in question is going to say and there’s nothing new to be gained. I’m going to strive to be judged by that standard. Over time, you will no doubt come to know my opinions and principles, which will allow you to predict my opinion on a subject. But I hope you’ll always find the posts worth reading because there is something in there you didn’t know and didn’t expect.

I wanted to look at Midwest cities on their own terms, using my framework for  thinking about the world, not just repeat the same conventional wisdom I could already get elsewhere, or just becoming a repetitive content extruder.

Most of the individual or small group sites I’ve seen that succeed had this X-factor of uniqueness. They had something they were writing about that no one else was doing in the same way. Some of these are local blogs like UrbanCincy – their unique market was writing about their city. Others like Alon Levy’s Pedestrian Observations are global. But whatever your scope, that sort of uniqueness needs to be there unless you’ve got something else incredible going on.

Why read some new internet writer who doesn’t have a platform like the New York Times behind them?  There has to be a reason. Most of us are already overwhelmed  by content. Why make room for another source? You won’t, particularly if that source is giving you the exact same message that you can already get from somebody established and credentialed, like a Brookings Institution fellow or something.

Your uniqueness can be in a variety of dimensions:  geographic scope, topical focus, analytical lens, etc. But unless you are an unbelievable super-star stylist or something, you’ve got to have something where you are providing unique content people can’t easily get elsewhere.

Obviously this doesn’t apply if you’re being paid to write for someone else. Then you just produce what your client or employer wants (ad copy, a newspaper article, etc). But if you go that route, don’t be surprised if your own brand in the market doesn’t attract if you lose that sponsor arrangement.

The most important commandment of writing on the internet is that you have to have something to say.

from Aaron M. Renn
http://www.urbanophile.com/2016/12/13/the-most-important-commandment-for-writing-on-the-internet/

How to Keep From Getting a Cold

Photo by Flickr/Mike Mozart – CC BY 2.0

Are you the kind of person who wants to stay healthy?

Cold and flu season is upon us, so here’s a post with some practical tips on how to keep from getting colds.

I used to get a lot of colds, multiple per year.  The average adult apparently gets 2-4 of them every year.

But with some changes to my behavior and lifestyle, I was able to dramatically reduce the number of colds I get. In fact, while I do still get sick sometimes, I almost never get an actual common cold.

So while this is not medical advice – for that talk to your doctor – this is what I did to get pretty dramatic and noticeable results.

The Sick Story of How Colds Spread

The first thing to ask is: how do colds actually spread? Though they are common in the winter, cold weather doesn’t cause them. Rather, they are caused by viruses we get from other people.

This site lays out the disgusting details.  Colds spread through snot.

A person with a cold gets a runny nose, which he then promptly touches with his hand to stop a drip in progress. Then he touches a door nob, subway railing or other surface and leaves his virus-laden snot all over it. You promptly come along behind him, open that door or touch that surface, then touch your nose or eyes and Boom! – you’ve got a cold.

Four Steps to Avoiding Colds

The key to not get colds then, is to make sure somebody else’s infected mucus doesn’t make into your nose.

I do four things to stop this from happening.

1. Never, ever touch your nose.  It’s just that simple. Establish a habit of never touching your nose unless you have a kleenex or other protective covering. (No, silly, your gloves don’t count! They’ve got the same stuff on them). The only way to really do this is to carry some kind of tissue with you at all time.

If you’re a dude you can do what I do: carry a handkerchief in your back pocket at all times.  Women can either do the same, or carry a travel pack of kleenex in your purse.

Breaking the habit of touching your nose is very difficult, but can be done. Theoretically you should do the same with your eyes, but since I haven’t done that I can’t warrant it to you. I’ve been able to mostly avoid colds without doing it.

2. Wash your hands whenever arriving at home or the office. Now some of you know I like bacteria. But I don’t like viruses. So while washing my hands might get rid of some good bacteria, that’s the price I pay to ditch the viruses.

Obviously I could be picking up a cold from surfaces inside my office. And I do wash my hands throughout the day.

But to really create a habit, I rely on two triggering events: my arrival at work (in the morning and after returning from lunch) and my arrival at home.

I just use plain soap, or whatever kind is available.

3. Take Vitamin D-3. Supposedly Vitamin D is good for your immune system. But regardless, as many as 75% of adults and teens are Vitamin D deficient, though there’s a huge debate on the issue. I personally take 5000 IU of Vitamin D-3 per day. You can decide what you should do in consultation with your doctor.

4. Eat an Anti-Inflammation Diet. The steps above are simple, discrete items. This one is more complicated. But the basic idea is to set up your diet and lifestyle to reduce chronic inflammation. The full scope of that is beyond this post, but I will link you over to my post on taking care of your microbiome (the good bacteria in our intestines that we actually need). That’s the foundation of my personal anti-inflammation diet.

I saw many health improvements from this, but the most important one here was a reduction in my chronic allergies. I used to have a bit of a runny nose all the time. Obviously that massively increases the temptation to touch my nose. My allergies aren’t totally gone, but they are much reduced. I’m convinced this right here played a big role in my lack of colds.

You can read more about colds at WebMD.

Enjoy the winter and stay healthy!

from Aaron M. Renn
http://www.urbanophile.com/2016/12/06/four-ways-to-keep-from-getting-a-cold/

Art Responding to Architecture in Columbus, Indiana

I’ve written about the incredible small city of Columbus, Indiana before. It’s arguably the most successful small industrial city in America that is neither a college town nor a state capital. It’s also home to one of the world’s great collections of modern architecture.

One of the reasons that Columbus has done so well is that it hasn’t rested on its laurels, and has looked for new ways to keep making the community better. One of their new efforts is an arts initiative called Exhibit Columbus. I talked by phone with Richard McCoy and Anne Surak about this in my latest podcast. If the audio player doesn’t display for you, click over to listen on Soundcloud.

 

from Aaron M. Renn
http://www.urbanophile.com/2016/12/01/art-responding-to-architecture-in-columbus-indiana/

President-elect Trump Needs to Be Careful Not to Fall Into the Mayor Trap

Image via City Journal

President-elect Trump just announced a deal to save about 1,000 jobs at the Carrier plant in Indianapolis. This gives us a view into the deal/project mentality that Trump brings with him to the Presidency from his real estate development background.

I happen to think this was a good deal to do. But Trump needs to be careful not to fall into the “mayor trap” of thinking about too many individual projects and ribbon cuttings, and be sure to keep thinking much, much bigger.

I talk about this, and how his real estate background might work with or against the job of the President, in my new City Journal piece “The Mayor Trap“:

Trump thinks big and is a master of complex deal-making. He has a project orientation, seeks to maximize his PR value, focuses on brand-building and increasing brand value, and boasts of his cost efficiency and operational excellence. Trump really did save that late, mismanaged, and over-budget Wollman Rink project in Central Park, finishing in mere months a renovation that had dragged on for four years. He really did spend far less than both his primary opponents and Hillary Clinton during the election. And now he really has cut a deal to save Carrier. “Trump buildings are extremely well managed. Like it or not, he does a good job,” the head of a real-estate brokerage told Crain’s New York.

The challenge for Trump is that this operational orientation translates imperfectly to the presidency. Trump may have run a large business empire, but it’s small enough—even now—for him personally to oversee deals and projects. The presidency isn’t like that. There’s no way he can govern effectively by involving himself in deals relating to individual factories or infrastructure projects.

Abandoning this successful style will be a challenge for Trump. He’ll need to be strategic about which “deals” he chooses to oversee himself as president. The Carrier agreement was high-visibility and it fulfilled a campaign promise, making it a perfect example of the kind of deal Trump should involve himself in. Because Carrier’s parent company is a large defense contractor, Trump had leverage. His running mate, Mike Pence, is still governor of Indiana, and thus had a governor’s economic-development tools to work with. Above all, the Carrier deal sends a powerful message to corporate America: there’s a new sheriff in town. Still, it can’t be the norm. Instead, Trump needs to think bigger, focusing on transformative agreements—renegotiating unfavorable trade deals, getting legislation through Congress, adjusting relations with foreign governments—that affect the larger economy.

Click through to read the whole thing.

from Aaron M. Renn
http://www.urbanophile.com/2016/11/30/president-elect-trump-needs-to-be-careful-not-to-fall-into-the-mayor-trap/