Slouching Towards Luxury

Image via Wikipedia (photographer not listed), CC BY-SA 3.0

An article about the resurgence of independent bookstores has been making the rounds.

Between 2009 and 2015, more than 570 independent bookstores opened in the U.S., bringing the total to more than 2,200; that’s about a 35 percent jump after more than a decade of decline. The surprise recovery may hold lessons for other small retailers. Stores like Anderson’s are helping Harvard Business School professor Ryan Raffaelli solve an economic mystery. “I often say, these are stories of hope,” Raffaelli laughed.

Bookstores may be following the same story arc of previous items disrupted by digital: the analog product becomes the luxury option. It goes something like this:

  • A digital (or other technologically enabled version) of an analog product is released.
  • The tech version becomes the hot item
  • The tech version achieves marketplace hegemony
  • The high end market re-embraces the analog version as a luxury product.

Think about watches. Originally watches were mechanical devices that required winding, etc. Then the quartz watch came along and replaced the mechanical movement of the watch with an electronic one. Quartz watches –  cheap, accurate, and no-wind – took over the market. Many old line watch makers fell on hard times. Then mechanical watches became the luxury item, with connoisseurs scoffing at quartz watches. There’s a thriving luxury watch industry to this day.

The same thing happened with music. Vinyl gave way to cassette tapes, then CDs, then online digital. But in recent years vinyl has made a major comeback and is now a high end luxury option.

I expect the same thing to happen with print. It was cool to get your information online when that was cutting edge. Now that everyone does it, hip folks want the print edition. We’ve seen a proliferation of high end, niche glossy magazines, for example.

The retail experience may end up the same. Everybody goes online for convenience. But as online starts to saturate certain markets, the high end consumer will revert back to the in-store experience.

It’s a pattern to keep an eye on for future products.

from Aaron M. Renn
http://www.urbanophile.com/2018/04/30/slouching-towards-luxury/

How to Brand a City

This week, my appearance on the Big Ideas for Better Places podcast out of Roanoke, Virginia. We talk all things city branding, including the what, how, and why. We talk about various strategies and examples that cities use to for branding, and highlight some opportunities missed. We also do a little bit of brainstorming about Roanoke. If the audio player doesn’t display for you, click over to listen on Soundcloud.

Subscribe to podcast via iTunes | Soundcloud.

Cover image credit: Ben Schumin, CC BY-SA 3.0

from Aaron M. Renn
http://www.urbanophile.com/2018/04/27/how-to-brand-a-city/

A Brief Trip to Nashville

I was in Nashville for a couple days for meetings and managed to take a tour of the city. One of my college friends lives there and I generally impose upon him to drive me around town whenever I’m there so that I’m able to see how the city is evolving. It continues to impress.

This time I did not, sadly, get a chance to take many pictures. That’s a shame because there’s a lot to see. Every time I visit Nashville the city is more booming than the last time I visited it. This was no exception. Apartment building were going up everywhere, on every side of town I visited. I would to have been able to do a picture post so you can see.

It’s not just apartments. There have been some downtown office buildings constructed, with more in the pipeline. And a number of hotels are being built. They appear to be needed as hotel rates are sky high there and I was told that’s pretty common.

There’s a lot of building happening in Nashville, but architecturally it’s pure schlock or at best a clone of the exact types of apartment buildings going up in every city.

A couple of people did indicate that the growth boom is showing some signs of a slowdown. It’s not that growth is going to stop but they are seeing indications that the future pace may not be as torrid as the recent past.

Nashville has widened many of its freeway to fivish lanes each way. Yet there is still growing traffic congestion. Traffic is worse in Nashville than in comparable sized Midwest regions. In part presumably that’s because infrastructure hasn’t kept up with growth. Other Sunbelt growth cities like Charlotte and Raleigh added beltways, but Nashville doesn’t really have one. It has a sort of inner beltway around the greater downtown area that is a bunch of branching and diverging of freeways that meet there. There’s also a partial circumferential route built far out in rural areas that was, last I drove it, lightly traveled and too far out to be useful. There also don’t appear to be a lot of high quality crosstown arterials routes. I suspect something about the architecture of the roadway system contributes to the traffic problems.

I also continue to be unimpressed with the street designs there. Major corridors lack sidewalks, and even where I would see that sidewalks had been added, it was usually only on one side. I didn’t see a single person on a bicycle the entire time I was there. The transit referendum is May 1. It’s hard to imagine that, if it passes, transit will be very useful there.

From a cultural perspective, the city is still hot. One of my friends says that his East Coast friends who age out of that high cost environment heavily favor places like Nashville and Austin. Apparently recruiting people to come to Nashville is super-easy. In fact, I heard one person talk about how they have to be careful to filter for people who actually want the job in question, not just a vehicle to get them to Nashville.

In general, things seem to be going very well in town, so we’ll see if it keeps up in the future.

from Aaron M. Renn
http://www.urbanophile.com/2018/04/26/a-brief-trip-to-nashville/

Skin in the Game

From Nassim Taleb public use photos, via Bloomberg

Nassim Taleb, who famously predicted the likely bankruptcy of FannieMae in his book The Black Swan, recently released the latest installment in his Incerto series, Skin in the Game.

I recently posted a review of it over at City Journal. Here’s an excerpt:

Taleb’s answer to the problem of accountability is to create an environment where people, especially those at the top, have more skin in the game. He believes that this approach will, for example, lessen income inequality. “The way to make society more equal is by forcing (through skin in the game) the rich to be subjected to the risk of exiting from the 1 percent,” he writes. How do we do that? One way is to end bailouts, which by necessity means shrinking the state. “It is government, not markets, that makes these things possible by the mechanisms of bailouts,” says Taleb. “It is not just bailouts: government interference in general tends to remove skin in the game.” He continues, “in general, the more people worship the sacrosanct state (or, equivalently, large corporations), the more they hate skin in the game.” Decentralization can shrink the influence of big government. “What can we do since a centralized system will necessarily need people who are not directly exposed to the cost of errors? Well, we have no choice but to decentralize or, more politely, to localize; to have fewer of these immune decision makers.” Taleb admires political systems, like Switzerland’s, that “start with the municipality, and work their way up, rather than the reverse, which has failed with larger states.”

He champions entrepreneurs. “Entrepreneurs are heroes in our society. They fail for the rest of us”—in contrast with the non-owner, interchangeable, big-company CEO. “Counter to the common belief,” Taleb argues, “executives are different from entrepreneurs.” He prefers simplicity to complexity, noting that “people who have always operated without skin in the game . . . seek the complicated and centralized, and avoid the simple like the plague. Practitioners, on the other hand, have opposite instincts, looking for the simplest heuristics.”

Click through to read the whole thing.

 

from Aaron M. Renn
http://www.urbanophile.com/2018/04/25/skin-in-the-game/

New Localism and Old Institutions

Last week I posted an article talking about the maturity curve, or the lifecycle arc from incubation to growth to maturity to decline that applies to so many things. And this weekend my review of Bruce Katz and Jeremy Nowak’s book The New Localism was published in the New York Times Book Review. These two items are related.

It’s been widely noted that trust in institutions has been declining across the board in America. Government, religion, media, and business have all seen declining trust.  To be quite honest, that decline in trust is deserved. These institutions by and large are not meeting the challenges of our present day and are often dysfunctional.

The root of this at some level is the maturity curve. Our institutions are old and either in maturity or decline. (As I’ve observed many times, one reason sprawly suburbs seem so great in the now is simply that they are new, and so in the youth phases of their lifecycle).

At some level it’s hard to appreciate how old many of our institutions are. Some of them date to the American founding or before. Others are legacies of the 19th century or the New Deal. The high water mark of institutions was in the immediate postwar era – the Marshall Plan, NATO, the UN, the institutional infrastructure between things like the interstate highway system, structures like the GI bill, a then decently functioning corporatist combination of big business and big unions, and many other things.

But World War II ended almost 75 years ago.  This is roughly the same distance as from the Civil War to World War II, and from the Revolution to the Civil War. These roughly 70 to 80 year epochs (the span of a human life, interestingly), produced major institutional resets in America, often after a process of upheaval. If history is any guide, we’re due for another one. (I gather that this might be the premise behind the book The Fourth Turning, which I have not read. My observations are my own, but I think rather obvious).

New Localism as Institutional Decay Workaround

I see “new localism” initiatives as an attempt to address this institutional decay. The premise seems to be that Washington is hopelessly broken and the state the wrong functional unit, hence cities and metropolitan areas need to find a way to accomplish institutional refresh for the 21st century.

Looking at the two domestic examples Katz and Nowak use, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, what we see is the creation of new connectivity between institutions, and the creation of new layers or types of institutions to solve problems.

I will look at Indianapolis because I know that case the best. Katz and Nowak wrote up a case study on the Central Indiana Corporate Partnership. CICP is an economic development vehicle created by the top 50-60 major companies and universities in the broader Central Indiana area. CICP has developed and launched almost every major economic development effort in the state in the past 15 years or so. Here’s a map of everything they do.

Key attributes of CICP are that it is a civic sector initiative (though has partnerships with government), that is truly regional in scope, and which has a long-term time horizon that transcends politicians and electoral cycles.

Most cities and states have managed to create pretty much all of the initiatives that CICP has done. Most places have some sort of corporate council, either inside the chamber of commerce or separate from it. They have young professional groups, tech booster clubs, life sciences initiatives, etc. Yet the Indianapolis civic sector has been unusually cohesive and effective over the long term. CICP was a good choice for Katz and Nowak.

If the structures and institutions of government are inadequate to the 21st century, the CICP solution addresses this by essentially bypassing government and creating new, parallel institutions through which important things can get done. It’s essentially a workaround. It’s additive to existing institutions rather than reinvigorating them or replacing them.

CICP is a high functioning organization of its type, but the nature of this kind of institutional strategy (of which CICP is only one manifestation) leads to negative consequences elsewhere, namely in state and local government.

Though non-partisan (the current CEO is a Democrat, I believe), CICP has been tight with the Republican dominated state government. The state has a transactionally oriented economic development group called the Indiana Economic Development Corporation (IEDC), but otherwise has essentially outsourced economic development in the state to CICP.

CICP is thus a good example of what has happened generally in the state. A robust civic sector has essentially financed and enabled the retreat of government from its functions and responsibilities. The state loves to brag about its low taxes, AAA credit rating, and $2 billion in cash reserves, but part of that has been been accomplished because it has offloaded responsibilities to the private sector.

Just as one example, consider higher education. I’ve been writing a lot about the problems facing higher ed. It’s been widely observed that states have reduced their support for higher ed. Some of this has been because of financial problems at the state level due to mismanagement of pensions and debt, or understandable stress because of the Great Recession. Neither of these apply in Indiana today.

Given the link between research universities and economic development, you would think the state would see funding its flagship institutions as a critical economic development priority. But while I believe state funding has been relatively stable in Indiana recently, you can’t say that the state has been investing into its higher ed institutions.

In a superstar economy where the benefits flow disproportionately to the top of the pyramid, moving up the ladder is critical. Purdue is a top ten engineering school. That’s good. But it would be vastly more impactful if it were in the top five. Look at the economies around MIT, Stanford, and Berkeley, or around CMU’s #1 ranked computer science department.

What if the state of Indiana gave IU and Purdue another $100 million each annually for research? There’s nothing magic about that number and I’m not claiming that’s enough money for a radical change. I just picked it because the state could do that for a decade – a billion extra research dollars each for IU and Purdue – just with the money it already has in the bank – not a dime of extra taxes involved.  But it’s not doing that.

So CICP doesn’t have a good partner in state government. Instead of being an entity that complements government investment, CICP effectively took over things that government would be much more heavily involved in elsewhere. If that freed the government to do things like invest in university research, it could be a big benefit to the state. Unlike many fiscally distressed states, Indiana is positioned to invest. Instead, it acts like Smaug sitting on its hoard of gold.  The universities are actually investing the other direction, such as by participating in groups like CICP.

The situation is far worse at the local level. Indianapolis was historically famous for its mayors like Richard Lugar, Bill Hudnut, and Steve Goldsmith. But since then (Goldsmith left office in the 90s) the government of the city has atrophied to the point where it is largely ineffective. This winter saw the streets of the city turn into a cratered moonscape of potholes, forcing the city to do $14 million in emergency (and temporary) repairs. The parks department is all but non-existent. The Trust for Public Land ranked it dead last among American cities in spending on parks. It has only a fraction of the urban planners on staff of other cities its size, and last time I saw a job posting was only paying around $32,000 for someone with a masters degree in planning.

A highly functioning civic sector in Indianapolis effectively masked the collapse of government at the city level.

I believe a similar story could be told in Northeast Ohio. A group of local foundations created something called the Fund for Our Economic Future, and a series of regional economic development groups. It’s been widely praised and justly so. But these foundations and organizations are simply stepping into a vacuum. That’s admirable, but fixing the underlying institutional issues that created that vacuum in the first place is also critical. The Cleveland Foundation is America’s oldest and largest community foundation, but if it’s just funding things government ought to be doing anyway but isn’t, the region doesn’t really get the full benefit of that firepower.

This illustrates the limit of a new localism approach based only on new institutions and connectivity. New institutions can do very good things, but they can also become co-dependent enablers of the failure of existing institutions.

Our old institutions are still there and still declining. Something has to be done to fix or change them to become higher functioning. In particular, local government needs to be repaired and local services rebuilt and restored over time in many places. Other institutions probably need to be eliminated completely. This repair or replacement of existing institutions is a key part of any complete new localism and can’t be overlooked just because it’s hard.

from Aaron M. Renn
http://www.urbanophile.com/2018/04/24/new-localism-and-old-institutions/

Books on Cities

A collection of four of my reviews of books about cities is available in this week’s New York Times Book Review. The first paragraph of my review of The New Localism by Bruce Katz and Jeremy Nowack is missing online, so while we’re waiting for the technical fix, I’ll include that review as my excerpt here:

Billed as a response to populism, this book acknowledges the validity of some populist complaints, like the challenges from economic restructuring and rising income inequality. It argues for addressing such concerns principally through cities, developing new capabilities to solve problems locally. Katz and Nowak say that cities need to create new governance frameworks, develop new techniques for mobilizing their citizens and find innovative ways to finance themselves.

They cite the example of Pittsburgh, which promoted the transition from steel to knowledge-economy specialties like robotics. Indianapolis is praised for its Central Indiana Corporate Partnership, an entity set up by business, university and foundation leaders to tackle economic development initiatives in a way that would transcend political boundaries and electoral cycles. And from Europe, Copenhagen’s City and Port Development Corporation is offered as a shining example of how to use municipal real estate assets to finance infrastructure, notably Copenhagen’s subway system.

The challenge is that these solutions are of necessity particular to each city, requiring a careful assessment of local assets, politics, etc. And some level of leadership capability must already be in place to pull them off. Still, with the federal government missing in action, there’s little alternative to cities having to do the difficult and time-consuming work. Whether they can succeed in time to fend off populist insurgency remains an open question.

Click through to read the whole thing.

 

from Aaron M. Renn
http://www.urbanophile.com/2018/04/23/books-on-cities/

Ranking Smaller College Towns

I recently revisited Bloomington, Indiana (home of Indiana University, my alma mater) and Charlottesville, VA (home of the University of Virginia). They got me thinking about college towns, so I pulled some data for various of them in this size class.  These are communities roughly in the 125,000-250,000 population range that are home to major flagship (or similar) universities.

I have 11 on my list. For this size class of community, I believe the best unit of analysis is the county. These are metro areas and can have outlying counties. But those counties are typically rural (as opposed to the urbanized suburban counties of major metros). In my view they skew more than illuminate the data. So I use county where feasible. Some data is only available at the metro level. And because Virginia’s cities are all independent cities, I combined Charlottesville with Albemarle County where possible.

With that, let’s dig in.

Population

Here’s a list of my college town counties sorted by population.

Rank College Town County 2017
1 Washington County, AR (Fayetteville – University of Arkansas) 231,996
2 Brazos County, TX (College Station – Texas A&M) 222,830
3 Champaign County, IL (University of Illinois) 209,399
4 Tuscaloosa County, AL (University of Alabama) 207,811
5 Tippecanoe County, IN (West Lafayette – Purdue University) 190,587
6 Boone County, MO (Columbia – University of Missouri) 178,271
7 Centre County, PA (State College – Penn State University) 162,660
8 Charlottesville-Albemarle County, VA (University of Virginia) 155,721
9 Johnson County, IA (Iowa City – University of Iowa) 149,210
10 Monroe County, IN (Bloomington – Indiana University) 146,986
11 Clarke County, GA (Athens – University of Georgia) 127,064

Here’s how those places fared in terms of population growth since 2010.

Rank College Town County 2010 2017 Total Change Pct Change
1 Brazos County, TX 195,662 222,830 27,168 13.89%
2 Washington County, AR 203,970 231,996 28,026 13.74%
3 Johnson County, IA 131,293 149,210 17,917 13.65%
4 Tippecanoe County, IN 173,045 190,587 17,542 10.14%
5 Boone County, MO 163,168 178,271 15,103 9.26%
6 Charlottesville-Albemarle County, VA 142,703 155,721 13,018 9.12%
7 Clarke County, GA 117,481 127,064 9,583 8.16%
8 Tuscaloosa County, AL 194,993 207,811 12,818 6.57%
9 Monroe County, IN 138,511 146,986 8,475 6.12%
10 Centre County, PA 154,280 162,660 8,380 5.43%
11 Champaign County, IL 201,541 209,399 7,858 3.90%

Texas is killing it, of course. Fayetteville I don’t know much about, but it’s close to Bentonville (home of Wal-Mart), so may be drawing off that. Iowa City is growing at a Sunbelt rate, and we’ll see that it looks good on some other stats as well. Illinois is a shrinking state, and even a quality college town like Champaign is growing at a low rate.

Gross Domestic Product

Here are the college town MSAs sorted by real per capita GDP.

Rank College Town Metros 2016
1 Iowa City, IA 51,303
2 State College, PA 49,309
3 Charlottesville, VA 48,418
4 Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO 45,627
5 Columbia, MO 44,391
6 Champaign-Urbana, IL 44,352
7 Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN 40,276
8 Tuscaloosa, AL 40,046
9 Athens-Clarke County, GA 36,850
10 Bloomington, IN 36,193
11 College Station-Bryan, TX 33,730

Again we see Iowa City doing great. Also State College. Champaign and West Lafayette, despite high quality STEM programs, aren’t especially impressive. Bloomington not looking so good.

Here is how real GDP per capita has changed since 2010.

Rank College Town Metro 2010 2016 Total Change Pct Change
1 State College, PA 42,112 49,309 7,197 17.09%
2 Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO 39,100 45,627 6,527 16.69%
3 Columbia, MO 41,782 44,391 2,609 6.24%
4 Charlottesville, VA 45,986 48,418 2,432 5.29%
5 Athens-Clarke County, GA 35,027 36,850 1,823 5.20%
6 College Station-Bryan, TX 33,207 33,730 523 1.57%
7 Champaign-Urbana, IL 43,834 44,352 518 1.18%
8 Iowa City, IA 50,745 51,303 558 1.10%
9 Tuscaloosa, AL 40,005 40,046 41 0.10%
10 Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN 40,766 40,276 -490 -1.20%
11 Bloomington, IN 39,335 36,193 -3,142 -7.99%

Yikes. Bloomington, which I take a special interest in since I went to school there, is dropping like a stone. That’s double-plus-ungood. West Lafayette also lost ground economically. This should be deeply concerning inside the Hoosier State.

Iowa City is not so strong here, but is starting off a high base. State College also started on a higher base but is killing it. Fayetteville is also looking good.

Jobs

My county level jobs data is out of date, so I used the metro series. Here’s the ranking by metro, which no surprise roughly follows population. The values are in thousands of jobs.

Rank College Town Metro 2017
1 Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO 253.5
2 Charlottesville, VA 117.0
3 College Station-Bryan, TX 116.5
4 Champaign-Urbana, IL 110.2
5 Tuscaloosa, AL 107.6
6 Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN 102.9
7 Iowa City, IA 101.5
8 Columbia, MO 99.4
9 Athens-Clarke County, GA 96.8
10 State College, PA 78.0
11 Bloomington, IN 76.0

And here is growth since 2010.

Rank College Town Metro 2010 2017 Total Change Pct Change
1 Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO 200.3 253.5 53.2 26.56%
2 College Station-Bryan, TX 101.7 116.5 14.8 14.55%
3 Charlottesville, VA 102.9 117.0 14.1 13.70%
4 Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN 91.2 102.9 11.7 12.83%
5 Athens-Clarke County, GA 85.8 96.8 11.0 12.82%
6 Iowa City, IA 90.2 101.5 11.3 12.53%
7 Tuscaloosa, AL 96.5 107.6 11.1 11.50%
8 Columbia, MO 89.5 99.4 9.9 11.06%
9 State College, PA 74.4 78.0 3.6 4.84%
10 Champaign-Urbana, IL 107.6 110.2 2.6 2.42%
11 Bloomington, IN 74.4 76.0 1.6 2.15%

It’s another poor showing for Bloomington. Champaign is also not looking so hot. Fayetteville is rocking.

Incomes

Here are the college towns ranked by median household income. I used MSA here to grab Charlottesville.

Rank College Town Metro 2016
1 Charlottesville, VA 62,523
2 State College, PA 60,266
3 Iowa City, IA 57,777
4 Columbia, MO 52,752
5 Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO 51,848
6 Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN 51,410
7 Champaign-Urbana, IL 50,564
8 Tuscaloosa, AL 46,086
9 Bloomington, IN 43,693
10 Athens-Clarke County, GA 43,165
11 College Station-Bryan, TX 42,233

My observation of Charlottesville was that it was a posh town. I’m not surprised to see it so high on the list. State College and Iowa City again doing well, but Bloomington again doing poorly. Again, the top tech oriented schools in Champaign and West Lafayette aren’t that impressive.

For the change, I’m switching to county and dropping C’ville off the list. (MSA data isn’t available for 2010 because of metro redefinitions. I could use per capita income but my database needs updated for that). Note that unlike GDP per capita, these numbers are not inflation adjusted. The percentage number in brackets is the percent of the US average.

Rank College Town County 2010 2016 Total Change Pct Change
1 Tippecanoe County, IN 37,983 (75.9%) 51,361 (89.1%) 13,378 35.22%
2 Centre County, PA 44,746 (89.4%) 60,266 (104.6%) 15,520 34.68%
3 Boone County, MO 41,006 (81.9%) 52,752 (91.6%) 11,746 28.64%
4 Monroe County, IN 36,392 (72.7%) 43,582 (75.6%) 7,190 19.76%
5 Washington County, AR 38,278 (76.5%) 45,679 (79.3%) 7,401 19.33%
6 Johnson County, IA 49,226 (98.4%) 58,064 (100.8%) 8,838 17.95%
7 Brazos County, TX 35,407 (70.7%) 41,559 (72.1%) 6,152 17.38%
8 Champaign County, IL 45,254 (90.4%) 50,335 (87.4%) 5,081 11.23%
9 Tuscaloosa County, AL 43,450 (86.8%) 47,787 (82.9%) 4,337 9.98%
10 Clarke County, GA 34,230 (68.4%) 34,999 (60.7%) 769 2.25%

Here West Lafayette shines. They had substantial growth and went from 76% to 89% of the US average. Pretty good. State College is again doing well. Athens not so hot.

These are the numbers, with a minimum of analysis. I’m sure that commenters will have much more to say.

from Aaron M. Renn
http://www.urbanophile.com/2018/04/20/ranking-smaller-college-towns/

Ten Infrastructure Projects We Should Actually Build

I have argued that the primary infrastructure need in the US is for maintenance, not new builds or expansion. But clearly building nothing new isn’t realistic, so what projects should we build and why?

I just released a new Manhattan Institute issue brief highlighting some criteria for when new infrastructure can be justified, along with a list of 10 specific projects that make sense. I include transit, freight rail, highways, airports, and energy on the list.

My criteria:

  • where the existing infrastructure is at or over capacity and is experiencing a significant historical (not just projected) growth in demand, in a region that is growing overall; (this last bit is to rule out sprawl subsidizing roads in regions that are stagnant);
  • where infrastructure is obsolete or nearing the end of its useful life; where the original networks did not envision the current distribution of demand, such as highway links between cities that used to be very small but now are very large; and
  • where the project costs can be recovered from user fees such as tolls.

And my project list:

Passenger Rail

1. Gateway Project (New York City and New Jersey)

2. North–South Rail Link (Boston)

Freight Rail

3. Chicago Region Environmental and Transportation Efficiency (CREATE) program (includes passenger rail benefits)

Highways

4. I-11 link between Phoenix and Las Vegas

5. I-35 Capitol Express project (Austin)

6. SR 37 freeway improvement (Indianapolis)

7. I-345 freeway removal (Dallas)

Airports

8. Kansas City International Airport terminal improvement

9. Denver International Airport expansion

Energy

10. New England gas pipeline

Click through to read the whole thing.

from Aaron M. Renn
http://www.urbanophile.com/2018/04/19/ten-infrastructure-projects-we-should-actually-build/

The Fate of Small Towns

Robin Johnson of the Heartland Politics radio show in Burlington, Iowa invited me on to discuss the fate of rural and small town America. We chatted about improvements in rural physical quality of life, declining social conditions, which places are best positioned for the future, and a bit about Hillbilly Elegy. I’m including the audio as a podcast. If the audio player doesn’t display for you, click over to listen on Soundcloud.

Subscribe to podcast via iTunes | Soundcloud.

from Aaron M. Renn
http://www.urbanophile.com/2018/04/18/the-fate-of-small-towns/

The Master Curve

I’m going to be writing a bit about institutions, but before doing so want to introduce a concept that’s widely applicable and underlies a lot of our discussions about cities and many other things. This is the maturity curve, shown here in the form of a product life cycle diagram.

This curve starts off with a slow growing incubation phase, followed an accelerating growth phase (sometimes labeled hyper-growth), followed by a flattening at maturity and finally decline.

This is true of products (think the iPod). It’s also true of companies. Think about a retailer that gets hot and becomes a juggernaut as it opens tons of stores. Then it either saturates its market or loses its shine and falls by the wayside. It also applies to the growth of physical organisms, like us.

And it applies to social constructs like institutions and cities. Right now cities like Dallas and Nashville are hot. Detroit and Cleveland has struggled. The former are in their growth phase while the latter in maturity (or even decline). The real measure of a city is how it responds at maturity. Great cities like London, Paris, and New York have reinvented themselves across cycles, finding a way to re-create another growth phase. Detroit and Cleveland haven’t yet done that, though are trying. The real question about places like Dallas or Houston is what will happen when their growth phase ends and they have to face maturity. Will they be able to restart the cycle or successfully manage at a mature entity? Time will tell.

For people, we all die eventually. That’s the human condition. So while there are challenges from an aging population, older people don’t stay around forever as zombies. So humanity is constantly refreshing itself. With cities and institutions, however, old ones don’t necessarily go away as we create new ones. They linger for a long time and face many challenges. How then should we respond to this situation? This is something we need to ponder.

from Aaron M. Renn
http://www.urbanophile.com/2018/04/17/the-master-curve/